Future of Food · Issue 04 · November 2024

Seeing red

Can red meat recover its glorious past?

The sheep and beef sector is in a fight for its life. It also has a story nobody else in the world can tell.

Two headlines in one year captured the tension: a celebrated regenerative farm in Wānaka, and the likely closure of a sheep processing plant in Timaru with around 600 jobs lost. Sheep and beef built this country, yet average farm profit is forecast at just over $45,000 a year, wool has collapsed, and key markets look to have reached peak meat.

I do not think red meat is the problem. Around the world it is seen as badly grown and badly served, and New Zealand is unusually well placed to change that. Building on our grass-fed advantage, trading as nature-positive and telling a rich, science-informed food story grounded in te ao Māori could make us the premium player in global protein, while innovation unlocks more value from every animal.

What the issue covers

  • Four headwinds: shifting consumer demand, a slowing China, trade protectionism and new protein technologies.
  • The sector has already grown value while volumes fell, and innovation can do more with less again.
  • Disruption from novel proteins may be decades away, but it is a real threat with serious money behind it.
  • Co-products from each animal are becoming more valuable and deserve more attention.

A question to take to your next board or leadership meeting

If you sold half the volume at twice the value, what would have to be true about your story and your proof?

Work through it with me
Written by
Vincent Heeringa and Dr Victoria Hatton
With contributions from
  • Nick Rowe, Silver Fern Farms
  • Dr Olivia Ogilvie, Opo Bio
  • Dr Irina Miller, DaisyLab
  • Mike Lee, The Future Market
  • Dale Bowie, formerly of Wellington's Development Kitchen

The Future of Food series was originally published by FoodHQ Innovation Limited between 2024 and 2026, while I was Chief Executive. Each issue is reproduced here in full, with thanks to my co-authors, the contributors and FoodHQ's partners.