Future of Food · Issue 08 · October 2025

Milking it

What more can dairy achieve?

Dairy is already our biggest industry. If exports are to double by 2035, how much more can we ask of it?

It is easy to forget how exceptional dairy is when you live alongside it. In the early 1990s dairy exports were worth about $3 billion. Today they are edging towards $27 billion, a quarter or more of everything we export, built on both more cows and far more value per cow.

This issue asks where the next round of growth comes from. With a forecast global dairy deficit of around 30 million tonnes by 2030, the demand is there. The risk is that strong prices tempt us to underinvest in innovation just as alternatives, methane liability, a shifting China market and social licence pressures build. Growing well will mean innovating right along the value chain, from farm to plate.

What the issue covers

  • Dairy has grown almost tenfold in 30 years, in both volume and value.
  • New threats sit alongside old ones: alternatives, climate, methane and a changing China, plus trade barriers and land-use change.
  • A shared 'One New Zealand Dairy' story built on milk's nutrient density could lift how we show up in the market.
  • Fonterra is resetting towards added value and innovation, and the rest of the sector needs to follow.

A question to take to your next board or leadership meeting

What would your dairy strategy look like if commodity prices were not there to soften the decision?

Work through it with me
Written by
Vincent Heeringa and Dr Victoria Hatton
Research led by
Ebony Leake
With contributions from
  • Dr Pierre Venter, Fonterra
  • Mark Malone, Fonterra
  • Jeremy Hill, Fonterra
  • Komal Mistry-Mehta, Fonterra
  • Miles Hurrell, Fonterra
  • Anna Benny, farmer
  • Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, Lincoln University
  • Brendan Haigh, Miraka

The Future of Food series was originally published by FoodHQ Innovation Limited between 2024 and 2026, while I was Chief Executive. Each issue is reproduced here in full, with thanks to my co-authors, the contributors and FoodHQ's partners.