Future of Food · Issue 06 · April 2025

Into the blue

Is this aquaculture's big moment or another damp squib?

Ninety-six percent of our territory is ocean, yet it contributes less than three percent of GDP. Aquaculture has been the next big thing since the 1960s. Is it finally?

The ocean may be the biggest opportunity for our primary sector since the Dunedin sailed with frozen carcasses in 1882. We farm just 0.01 percent of our 430 million hectare marine estate, and a single hectare of salmon farm can generate around $14 million in revenue. Yet after twenty years of flat lining, the sector sits at about $760 million against a government goal of $3 billion.

Our conversations with Cawthron, NIWA, Plant & Food Research, AgriSea, Moananui and others suggest the potential is real, but it will not arrive by itself. It needs science and technology investment, fit-for-purpose consenting, foreign capital, new ocean space and the infrastructure to farm in the high-energy South Pacific. It also needs Māori, as kaitiaki and significant quota holders, at the centre, and serious attention to climate and environmental risk.

What the issue covers

  • Global seafood demand has grown at twice the rate of population, and New Zealand has one of the largest ocean estates in the world.
  • Reaching $3 billion means roughly tripling freight and quadrupling the supply chain.
  • Warming water, storms, pests and disease add real cost, and our land-based biosecurity expertise could become an advantage.
  • Easing consents for existing operators is a good first step. Opening prime new ocean space will be crucial.

A question to take to your next board or leadership meeting

If the next great New Zealand food industry is offshore, what would you need to start learning about it this year?

Work through it with me
Written by
Vincent Heeringa and Dr Victoria Hatton
With contributions from
  • Clare and Tane Bradley, AgriSea
  • Volker Kuntzsch, Cawthron Institute
  • Chris Cornelisen, Cawthron Institute
  • Craig Ellison, independent advisor
  • Mark Piper, Plant & Food Research
  • Dr Georgina Dowd, Plant & Food Research
  • Jodie Kuntzsch, Moananui
  • Andrew Forsythe, NIWA

The Future of Food series was originally published by FoodHQ Innovation Limited between 2024 and 2026, while I was Chief Executive. Each issue is reproduced here in full, with thanks to my co-authors, the contributors and FoodHQ's partners.